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Monday, January 24, 2011

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The NFL Season is down to four teams. This coming week, two more teams will end their season just a bit early and two teams will move on to play for the coveted Lombardi Trophy in Super Bowl XLV. A ticket to the AFC Championship -- New York Jets vs. Pittsburgh Steelers -- is definitely not cheap, going for $604 on average.

If you're trying to get to Heinz Field on a "budget" it would be best if you were already in Pittsburgh so you wouldn't have to pay for airfare or a hotel. If you are living in Pittsburgh, you can sit in the "cheap seats" for $246/ticket. However, if you're living in the Tri-State area, it's going to cost you a pretty penny to get to the game. The cheapest flight from New York to Pittsburgh is a nonstop Delta flight, which will cost you $367/ticket. A 3-star hotel in Pittsburgh starts at $59 a night, so if you are staying for three nights, a hotel will cost you $177. Add that all up and Jets fans will have to pay at least $544 more than Steelers fans to get to the AFC Championship Game.

Summary

Tickets to the AFC Championship*:

• 500 Level - $252/ticket

• 100 Level - $353/ticket

• Lower End Zone - $353/ticket

• 200 Level - $371/ticket

• 50-Yard Line Lower Level - $640/ticket

• 50-Yard Line Front Row - $1,117/ticket

*Best Price for each section

Airfare:

• New York (LGA) to Pittsburgh on Delta - $367/ticket

Hotel:

• Cheapest 3-star hotel - $76/night

• Cheapest 4-star hotel - $113/night

Total: 500 Level - $252/ticket, New York (LGA) to Pittsburgh on Delta - $367/ticket, Cheapest 3-star hotel -$76/night ($228 for three nights) = $847+

Now if money is not an issue...

Tickets to the NFC Championship: 50-Yard Line, Front Row - $1,117/ticket

Airfare: New York (JFK) to Pittsburgh First Class on Delta - $841/ticket

Hotel: Omni Hotel - Premier Suite - $379/night

Total: $3,095+

For more insight on what both the Steelers and the Jets need to do to achieve success and advance to Super Bowl XLV, check out the guest commentary below from two devoted fans, and bloggers.

Steelers Keys to Victory Over the Jets

Guest commentary by Bam Morris Blitzburgh Blog. You can find Bam on Twitter at @blitzburghblog1

Expose the dark side of Sanchez: We all know it is there, even the Jets fans. He's been solid during most of his playoff games, but there's no way the Jets would want to see him down by 14 points having to air it out against the Steelers defense. The Steelers need to stop the run and make Sanchez be the difference maker.

Solid special teams: The Steelers have a bad history of blowing winnable games on special teams, mostly with poor kick coverage. This area is one of the Jets strengths and a big kick return TD might be all New York needs to walk out of Heinz Field with a ticket to Dallas.

Let Roethlisberger do what he does best: The Jets caused chaos all over the field against Tom Brady and he blinked. Ben Roethlisberger is a different beast. He thrives on making great plays out of busted ones and he needs to punch the Jets in the mouth when they come after him.

Troy Polamalu: No other safety in the league gets inside a quarterback's head like Polamalu. He didn't play during the teams last meeting and his presence alone will make Sanchez think twice on almost every pass.

Cut down the penalties: Pittsburgh was one of the most penalized teams in the league this year and can ill afford to be hit with a ton of flags, especially the costly personal foul calls that have become commonplace. This will be a physical contest, no doubt, but cooler heads need to prevail for Pittsburgh to make the Jets earn every last yard.

Jets Keys to Victory Over the Steelers

Guest commentary by Daniel Krieg of Rex Sanchez.

Dominate the Steelers O-Line: The Jets must take advantage of the Steelers beat up offensive line. If they can put the same pressure on Ben that they put on Brady, the defense will dominate.

Don't Respect the Steelers: The Jets cannot give the Steelers too much respect. They play better when they're filled with anger and hate. I hope that fire continues burning.

Do NOT trust Nick Folk: I say this every week because it's true. It's a good thing the Jets found the end zone last week because had they needed Folk he would've choked.

Play it smart on special teams: The Jets punt returners terrify me when they let the ball bounce on kicks. I can see a nonsense fumble like that costing them the game. Also, Weatherford cannot keep booting the ball for touchbacks. Field position will be huge in this game.

Not making money as a YouTube partner? Here are some tips from YouTube itself

YouTube hosted a live event today to help partners get the most out of their YouTube revenue.

Phil Farhi of YouTube, began the event by telling partners about a few of the new initiatives that YouTube is working on, to help make partners as successful as possible. He started by bringing us through the history of advertising on YouTube.

Phil mentioned that just 3 short years ago, YouTube began using in-video and overlay ads, the first step in monetizing videos. And following the first format of ads, YouTube brought Ad Sense ads, enabling smaller advertisers/customers to get on board, allowing YouTube to capture a broader range of advertisers.

Next came in-Stream Ads (mid and pre-roll ads), a format that was launched about two years ago. YouTube said this has been popular because advertisers will pay more for ads that are similar to the format on TV. At almost the same time, promoted ads were introduced and it was proven to drive traffic to videos that were featured using the ‘promoted video’ format.

A few months ago, a new ad format for partners called TrueView was rolled-out. This format lets users watching a video skip the ad after five seconds. An ad format that YouTube says is less interruptive and doesn’t risk annoying your audience because it gives them the chance to hit stop.

Phil asked the question “ What makes a movie a successful?” Using the movie industry as an analogy, he went on to explain that there are many factors that come into play that make up the overall picture; ticket prices, seats filled, distribution etc. It’s the same with YouTube as he pointed out. Partners shouldn’t look at one aspect such as RPM (revenue per thousand page views) or CPM (cost per thousand, as an example $1 or $5 per thousand views), they should look at everything including geography.

A few points to take away

Good partners focus on overall revenue and aren’t fixated on “ticket price”. They also work hard at building a strong audience as well as trying to increase views. Good partners look at geography, RPM and CPM.

Bad partners look at the wrong metrics and don’t build up their audience. Partners who only focus on RPM might think everything is fine however, it’s critical that users concentrate on CPM as well and continue to build audience loyalty.

YouTube says advertisers are creating content that competes with user content, and millions of users are watching advertisements on the site. Think about the popularity of Superbowl ads.

Keep experimenting! Compare ad formats by type and geography and play around with different scenarios. Try enabling ads after your loyal audience has seen them or try it in reverse. Play with different recipes and see what happens when ad formats are enabled/disabled. There is a wide variety of ways to make revenue.

Take a good look at revenue break downs and compare formats; True View, in-Stream, etc.

Better reporting for ad formats coming soon. YouTube admits that partners don’t have the best reporting feature right now.

YouTube will be adding an option for partners to opt-in to just TrueView Ads without needing to be signed up with other formats.

Ensure the metadata on videos have the correct information and enough words to help YouTube’s algorithm bring the best targeted ads to your videos

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Tuesday, January 18, 2011

Forum Making Money

I spent two weeks of December in Chile as a guest of Professor Cristóbal García, Director of EmprendeUC at the Catholic University of Chile, which just signed up a 3-year collaboration partnership with Stanford’s Technology Ventures Program.

I did a keynote on innovation hubs at the newly created DoFuture program, spoke at Santiago’s Startup Weekend on Customer and Agile Development, and at a Conference in Patagonia supported by the Ministry of Economy’s Innovation Division.

I got smarter about the world outside of Silicon Valley, met some wonderful people who made me feel part of their family and shared some thoughts about entrepreneurship.

This post is a personal view of what I saw in what I call “Chilecon Valley” — in no way does it represent the views of the fine institutions I teach at.

Read this with all the usual caveats: visiting a place for a few weeks doesn’t make you an expert (heck I’ve lived in Silicon Valley for over 30 years and I’m still surprised), I’m not an economist, and the odds are I misunderstood or misinterpreted what I saw or just didn’t see enough.

Creating the Next Silicon Valley – The Chilean Experiment
Chile has decided that it wants to be an innovation hub in South America.

In my short time in Chile, I spent time meeting with:

Chilean entrepreneurs; as part of Santiago’s Startup Weekend as well as EmprendeUC-DUOC New Ventures Contest Awards ceremony.

The government; the Innovation Division of the Ministry of Economy, the Chilean Economic Development Agency, (CORFO) which sponsored Start-Up Chile and Do Future in Patagonia as well as Fundacion Chile, the main R&D agency and the National Innovation Council.

Universities; including the business, design and engineering schools in the Catholic University of Chile who are hard at work teaching and encouraging their students to think big and to start companies.

Independent non profits such as the Innovation Forum, encouraging entrepreneurship and innovation in education.

The good news:
Entrepreneurship and innovation is being talked about continually in Chile. This isn’t some small-time effort. The country is dead serious in all levels of government and universities about making this happen. They’ve been thinking hard and smart about the lessons to be learned not only from Silicon Valley, but with only 16 million people, they are also looking for lessons from other small innovation clusters such as Israel, Singapore and Finland. These countries are great models of countries too small to sustain startups of scale on just domestic consumption yet have managed to create innovation with a global reach.

What needs work:
As an outsider I was incredibly impressed with how far Chile has progressed in making the country an innovation hub. However, I had questions about the challenges that still needed to be addressed.

Venture Capital
Perhaps it was just who I was meeting, but for a country so focused on innovation and startups the lack of venture capitalists was noticeable. Given the interesting things going on in the engineering labs I visited and the startups I met, one would have thought the place would have been crawling with VC’s fighting over deals. Instead it felt like the government – through CORFO - was doing most of the risk capital investing. Given that great VC’s are much, much more than just a bag of money, this means that startups lack experienced board members with practical experience. There seemed to be very few who knew how to coach entrepreneurs and to build companies. Finally, it wasn’t clear if everyone was on the same page; that for a Chilean startup to scale it was going to have to reach past Chile and go global. There seemed to be few tools, techniques and strategies to do so.

A sign of progress will be when some of the CORFO guys leave the government and start their own VC firms.

Corporate Connections
Entrepreneurship in Chile seems to be disconnected from the country’s largest industries and core resources. The clearest example is the country’s copper mining industry, which contributes 20% of the Chilean Gross Domestic Product. (Chile produces 35% of the world’s mined cooper.) The largest company, the state-run Chilean National Copper Corp CODELCO, has $23 billion in sales. Yet the copper companies import nearly 100% of the advanced technology they use. Interestingly, CODELCO is required to contribute 10% of its revenues to the armed forces, but the mining industry seems to have little or no connection with innovation and entrepreneurship efforts in universities and startups. (Perhaps it’s because the Ministry responsible for Mining is separate from the Ministry responsible for the Economy and Innovation.)

I suggested that Chile’s mining industry could contribute to building innovation leadership by funding a multi-tiered initiative in the country’s leading universities:

Professional management training (obvious and immediate payback)

Applied engineering (top 10 annual challenges from the mining companies)

Basic research (copper based materials science, robotics, materials handling)

Small Business versus Scalable Startup versus Corporate Entrepreneurship
There’s confusion in both the Government and Universities about the difference between small business entrepreneurship (startups designed to be family businesses,) scalable startup entrepreneurship (startups designed from day one to scale big inside Chile and then expand globally) and corporate entrepreneurship.

I suggested that they think about educating (and funding) each class of entrepreneurs differently and realize different regions of Chile have different needs. In Santiago the concept that startups are not smaller versions of large companies and traditional business school classes and methods don’t apply, is starting to take hold and will help shape how they educate entrepreneurs. In contrast, over lunch with the governor of Ultima Esperanza (the “Last Hope” province on the Southern tip of Chile,) it became clear that there’s a pressing need for training and education in small business entrepreneurship, dramatically different then the scalable startup education wanted in Santiago.

These three types of entrepreneurship need to be explicitly recognized, encouraged and managed.

A Magnet For Talent
My sense is that Chile has not yet “declared a major.” Saying that you support entrepreneurship and innovation is a start, but the sentence needs to be finished. Entrepreneurship and innovation in what field? Where will Chile establish technical and innovative leadership? Is the only way they will attract talent by paying entrepreneurs to come to the country? Or will students and entrepreneurs come to Chile because it is one of the best places in the world for innovation in certain specific industries (pick your favorite – alternative energy? materials science? food science? cellulose outputs? video games and film? South American web commerce hub? automated mining? UAV’s? etc.)

Already there are multiple centers of excellence in the engineering schools in Santiago with strong entrepreneurial professors. Yet no dean, provost or government minister seems to want to issue a declarative sentence that says, “For the next five years we’re going to focus on building world-class leadership in these three areas.” (Perhaps because the cost of a public failure is so high in Chile. See below.)

I suggested that what seems to be missing is a stated goal for Chile to become a magnet for talent in specific domains. Why will people from South America stream to Chile, besides its magnificent geography? In what fields will Chile’s universities and entrepreneurial culture create such an irresistible pull?

A Culture that does not accept failure
Chileans I met were concerned that their culture was not accepting of business and/or personal failure. This is not the land of second chances where failure means you are an experienced entrepreneur. Partially due to a lack of bankruptcy or commercial courts, the bankruptcy process in Chile is draconian. In discussions with accounting and financial professionals, I learned that getting caught up in it feels like a Dickens’s novel, it can take years to shut down a company.

In addition, in Chile the cost of personal failure is high. If you fail, you’ve failed your family, your community and your country. As a result, societal pressures favor people who avoid risky ventures. Because its entrepreneurs are unlikely to make commitments or definitive statements which they know might be risky, i.e. “we’re going to be a leader in our market” or “our startup will be $100 million in five years,” Chile can’t foster the “reality distortion field” that underlies a dynamic entrepreneurial culture.

I suggested that perhaps using a science analogy could help change Chilean perspectives about the risk and experimentation it takes to build new ventures. Entrepreneurship and incubators could be described as an “Innovation Laboratory” - similar to a scientific laboratory where entrepreneurs develop and test hypothesis (iterative guesses) about new business models. And like science, starting a new venture is not a linear process but one that involves failures, dead ends and changes in direction.

Lessons From the Valley
At one of my presentations the audience was a mix of deans of multiple schools at Catholic University, government officials from the Ministry of the Economy, active entrepreneurs and students. I offered that Silicon Valley’s rise was serendipitous, that you can’t reverse engineer an accidental Entrepreneurial Cluster formed in the Cold War. However, we can point out the elements that made our valley successful, and point out the ones that may be helpful in Chile; the role of Universities and defense-driven university R&D, the rise of venture capital, a failure-tolerant culture and the emerging science of entrepreneurial education. Slides 22, 36, 97 and 117 are the key points.

Come To Chilecon Valley
If you’re serious about understanding centers of entrepreneurship outside the U.S., Chile is now one of the required stops. The progress in the last few years has been nothing short of outstanding.

I’ll be back.

Lessons Learned

Chile is trying to engineer an entrepreneurial cluster as a National policy

They’ve gotten off to a good start with a committed Ministry of the Economy

The universities are on board with passionate faculty and excited students

The country needs to build a deeper Venture Capital industry

Chilean core industries need to view entrepreneurship as an asset, and technological innovation as an opportunity to leap forward

Second chances are hard to come by in current Chilean business climate and culture

The next chairman of the Republican National Committee will face a debilitating debt, several of the candidates running for the post said during a candidate forum Monday, offering a stinging, if mostly implicit, indictment of incumbent Michael Steele.

In an hour and a half long gathering sponsored by three conservative organizations, candidates seeking the chairmanship said the next person to assume that office needs to spend the next two years rebuilding the RNC's credibility with major donors who can help prop up the ailing committee.

"It's time for some tough love at the Republican National Committee," said Ann Wagner, the former RNC co-chairman and ambassador to Luxembourg under President George W. Bush. Wagner said the RNC is "steeped in mismanagement, distractions and drama."

The RNC ended the 2010 election cycle with at least $20 million in debt, according to internal estimates. That stands in stark contrast with previous cycles over the last decade, most of which the RNC began in the black. Steele's critics have blamed the incumbent chairman for neglecting major donors, costing the party millions.

"We have to practice what we preach as Republicans, and we have to get our debt under control," said former Bush administration official Maria Cino, who has worked at or with the RNC for the better part of three decades.

"We're going to start out this cycle with one of the largest debts we've ever had. We're going to need to raise $20 million before we can start banking money," added Saul Anuzis, the former Michigan Republican Party chairman making his second run for the top post. "With this unprecedented debt, this is going to be a major challenge with respect to rebuilding our credibility."

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Friday, January 14, 2011

Moms Making Money

The movie, Race to Nowhere, has brought new attention to education and student motivation. I hope that this film inspires dialogue about what school could become.

As Seth Godin says in his 2010 book, Linchpin, Are you Indispensible?, the sign outside school could read, “We teach people to take initiative and become remarkable artists, to question the status quo and to interact with transparency. And our graduates understand that consumption is not the answer to social problems.”

I want to work at a school like that! What child does not want to go to a school as Godin describes: “What they should teach in school: Only two things: 1. Solve interesting problems. 2. Lead.”

Kierkegaard once said, “We create ourselves by our choices.” Our children and our students are making choices based on our examples.

In Terry McMillan's 2010 sequel to Waiting to Exhale called Getting to Happy, 15 ½-year-old Sparrow tells her mom, “Most of the kids at my school get their meds from their parents’ and grandparents’ medicine cabinet."

We are aware that some children are doing homework until late in the night and taking pills to stay up. How big of a problem is it? Another character, 14-year-old Taylor says, “I looked in your side table and I saw your little pharmacy ....all of [my mom’s] scripts were on display in the medicine cabinet. This is where most of my friends get their stash to sell at school for spending money.”

Jason McDonald, an instructional designer, and academic researcher states that "for high school and college there is evidence that the race we've entered our kids in is damaging them in important ways."   For college student information, he recommends reading My Freshman Year, the report of an anthropologist who went "native" as a college freshman and recorded her experiences.

Continued on the next page

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In 1970, I went to live on the island of Martha's Vineyard. I was quite ill with gastrointestinal problems. I began living mostly on seafood, fresh vegetables and salads, and raw milk and eggs purchased from a local farmer, with a little meat and whole grain bread. My health problems, which had been intractable for years, disappeared.

Raw milk remained a mainstay of my diet. Since 1981 I have strongly recommended raw milk to thousands of people who have seen me in my practice as a naturopathic physician. I practice in Connecticut, where we enjoy the right to purchase certified raw milk throughout the state (with the exception of the town of Fairfield, where a fascist local health board has instituted an unchallenged-for-lack-of-funds town ordinance prohibiting the sale of raw milk.)

The raw milk available in the part of Connecticut where I live is from Debra Tyler's farm in Cornwall Bridge, called "Local Farm." Debra has nine cows on fourteen acres. Eight health food stores in central and northern Connecticut pick up milk regularly at Local Farm. There are about a dozen other certified raw milk dairies among Connecticut's 210 dairy farms.

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Thursday, January 13, 2011

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Monday, January 10, 2011

Making Money With Options

Luck's father, Oliver, says the decision was based purely on "staying in a place he loves, playing beside teammates he adores and getting the degree he covets." Perhaps, I can relate to Luck better than some because I have the perspective of a 19-year-old high school senior that wants nothing more than to be in college right now instead of high school.

Being a senior in high school is not a horrible experience by any means, but right now, if I could be anywhere I wanted, I would be a second-semester freshman in college. Maybe a lot of high school seniors say that, but I am in my 14th consecutive year at the same independent private school. I have gone to school with more or less the same people for that entire time. I am ready to change schools, take some new classes, meet new people, and leave home. So when Andrew Luck announced he wanted to stay at school instead of going pro, I totally understood how he felt. I wouldn't want to leave school either.

On another note, even though the current NFL Collective Bargaining situation reported influenced Luck's decision very little, it is still a major issue worth examining in the context of Luck's decision. A major crticism of Luck is that he will lose tens of millions of dollars for not turning pro.

On the surface, that is almost guaranteed to be true even if his draft stock doesn't go down at all, and he doesn't get hurt playing for Stanford next year or the year after that because the new CBA realistically has to have a rookie payscale, which would result in Luck receiving a significantly smaller salary than the one he would have gotten had he gone pro this year.

But a closer analysis of the broad financial picture reveals that Luck made a sensible decision that very few big-time college athletes are capable of making. Assuming Luck gets his architectural design degree, he will still be set up to make good money regardless of what happens to his football career.

If something bad happens, he has a college degree to fall back on. If he plays for 20 years and makes more money than most of us will see in our lives, then he will have options for a real job beyond football if he wants to leave. Most former players who don't want to coach or don't make good coaches and don't have enough education, end up on the street because they spend too much money during their playing careers. By getting a degree, Luck assures himself that he will not share that future.

Andrew Luck has the right ideas of how to build a successful future. The rest of the world of big-time college athletics should take notice. And his critics should think twice before saying anything.

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It was only a couple months ago that the Rangers were (near) the top of the baseball world. They fulfilled their role as David, when slaying the Goliath Yankees, and endeared themselves to millions of baseball fans across the country with their love of all things hustle.

But things changed for the Rangers in a New York minute (you knew that New York would get back in the discussion) when Cliff Lee, their undisputed ace, shocked the baseball world and fled back to Philadelphia. Just like that, the Rangers rotation—a strength—turned into a weakness. Panic spread across Texas.

So they did what any right-minded club would do—go sign the next biggest name available. Because if you can't have the prom queen, you should at least get her still cute best friend...right? Except in this case, it's wrong...very wrong.

The Rangers are closing in on signing 3B Adrian Beltre to a 6-year, $96 million dollar deal that frankly makes, well, no sense. There are definitely positives to Beltre—he's coming off a big season, he's one of the best fielding third baseman (and players) in all of baseball, and he does have a power bat. But for the few reasons that the deal does make some sense, there are many more reasons why it doesn't.

Why? Let's break it down:

Beltre will be 32 years old a week into the season—not ancient—but definitely edging towards the downside of his career. On top of that, this will be his 14th season. If there's such a thing as a "young" veteran, Beltre isn't it. Do you really see this guy still going strong when he's in his 17th, 18th or 19th year of his career (or the second half of his contract)?

In 13 previous seasons, Beltre has made the postseason ONCE! That was in 2004-2005, while still with the Dodgers. Beltre's line was .267 AVG, one RBI, zero extra-base hits, three K's, zero BB's—a series that saw the Dodgers lose handily to the Cardinals in four games. For the record, that was the same year he had his breakout season, when he finished second in the NL MVP race.

Beltre is notorious for having big years in the last year of his contract (see 2004 with Dodgers, 2010 with Boston). I think we saw with Seattle what happens when the guy isn't as motivated to play for the next big contract

Texas is a SMALL market team. Giving an aging player a deal averaging $16 million a year is ABSURD. Look at the Yankees with A-Rod. A-Rod is making $30 million a year for the next eight seasons, yet is already being hampered with injuries. Throwing this amount of money at guys over 30 years old with 10+ years of experience is a huge risk, especially for a team like Texas.

As a team, Texas had a salary of around $55 million last year, which ranked 26th in the majors. That means that they're going to give Beltre a contract that composes nearly 29 percent of their salary from last season.

How was this the price set for Beltre this offseason? Carlos Gonzalez—a much younger OF coming off a major season, who has more upside than Beltre, just agreed to a seven-year, $80 million deal with Colorado. Are we to believe that Beltre is worth $16 million more (and a year less) than CarGo?

Where is Michael Young going? Remember, your CURRENTLY highest-paid player who JUST HAPPENS to play third base. He has three more years left on his deal, worth $48 million. Are the Rangers ready to eat $16 million a year for Young to have Beltre play the same position? Young is 34 years old and has a big contract for the next three seasons. What team is going to be willing to eat that amount of money while taking Young on the downside of his career? On top of that, Young has a no-trade clause in his contract with 22 teams on it, further limiting the options the Rangers have with him.

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